Week 11 Start/Sit

Another week.  Another game closer to the fantasy playoffs….

Unlike many who are out there writing about fantasy football, this is not my day job.  I wish it were.  I spend enough time on it every week that it should be.  But alas, it’s not.  And so I ask that you bear with me this week, as I am unexpectedly away on business and watched my laptop crash as I was working on the material for this posting.  CPR was unsuccessful.  Yep.  Good thing we have smartphones and tablets.

Anyway, onto Week 11.  One of the juiciest match-ups for points this week is the game between the Redskins and the Eagles.  Robert Griffin III faces one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL.  He is a QB1 this week.  Teammates Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed are a WR1 and a TE1 respectively, both with upside.  The same can be said for Nick Foles, a QB1 this week, and DeSean Jackson, a WR1 in Week 11.  Riley Cooper has looked good of late.  The production from him won’t always be there.  He is a WR3, to be sure.  But he has some upside in this one, making him a good flex play if you need one.

Ray Rice continues to disappoint.  There is a lot of debate about him this week.  He has a good match-up against Chicago, whose run defense isn’t what it used to be.  I’d still hesitate to use him if it weren’t for the weather, which looks very windy and damp for this game.  So while there is some risk in playing him, Rice makes for a decent RB2 in Week 11.

Tampa Bay quarterback Mike Glennon has a good match-up ahead of him against Atlanta.  He’s played surprisingly well.  He should be considered a QB2 this week, and could be useful in two-QB leagues.  And Vincent Jackson owners should consider him a WR2 with upside.  On the other side of the ball, Harry Douglas should see some good targets with Roddy White stuck on Revis island.  Atlanta’s offense is clearly hurting, so Douglas is no more than a high-end WR3 option, but he has upside that can lead to WR2 or even WR1 numbers if he breaks a good play or two.

QB Russell Wilson has a great match-up this week at home against Mineeosta.  He is a solid QB1 with upside this week, and should be started ahead of Tom Brady.  Percy Harvin makes his Seahawk debut in this one.  He is supposed to be on a limited snap count, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he got a lot of looks.  Harvin is a high-risk, high-reward flex play this week.  And those in need of a low-end WR3 with upside should consider Doug Baldwin, who may see some action and production as defenders focus on Harvin and during second half garbage time.

Finally, if you don’t have the Seattle or Arizona DST (Kansas City and Carolina are decent plays, but they carry downside this week), consider starting the New York Jets DST.  They have a favorable match-up this week against the decimated Buffalo Bills.  This means bad news for owners of C.J. Spiller, who should avoid starting him against the NFL’s best run defense.

Another player to avoid in Week 11 is QB Matt Ryan, especially if Tony Gonzalez sits this one out.  The Falcons seem to have all but given up, and they are really banged up.  So he goes into this game with plenty of downside.

Tom Brady is a toss of the dice.  He and his offense are finally clicking.  They are coming off the bye week too.  Will he get the best of the Carolina defense, or will they get the best of him.  It’s anyone’s guess.  Consider Brady a high-end QB2 this week with more downside than upside.  If you start him, make sure you lower your expectations.

Fantasy owners should also temper their expectations for Andy Dalton.  He has come back down to earth, and faces a stingy Cleveland Browns defense.  He could surprise us with some good numbers, but the higher probability is that his numbers will be on the lower end in this game.  A.J. Green is worth a start, but he is a low-end WR1 this week.

And now we come to the game of the week: Kansas City and Denver.  You never really know what you are going to get when a great offense meets a great defense.  But here are some tips for this one.  Start Peyton Manning unless you somehow have Drew Brees or Matthew Stafford as an alternative option.  Your Broncos wide receivers and tight ends are worth starting, but lower your expectations for them just a hair.

As for the Kansas City DST, it depends on your league’s point settings.  If your DSTs get penalized a lot for points allowed, you may want to have Kansas City sit this one out.  Too much downside.  But if the penalty isn’t bad, and you league rewards well for sacks and turnovers, the Kansas City DST is still a good play in this one.  Each league is different, and each owner has a different level of risk tolerance.  So take this perspective for what it is worth, and decide accordingly.

Best of luck to you as you continue your quest for your league’s championship!

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